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UNEMPLOYMENTAlthough unemployment is officially 23 percent, most serious observers and activists put the figure at over 40 percent. A figure that is set to rise as the global economic crisis starts to bite in a country whose recent economic fortunes have been built on demand for commodities such as coal, gold and platinum. Little wonder that the demand for jobs and decent wages is at the heart of calls from township protestors and striking workers alike.
This is a country in which one worker feeds on average another 5 members of the family. Media coverage of the township protests has not failed to notice how young many of the protestors are. In a country in which the every other 18-24 year old is unemployed and the youth have played such a prominent and symbolic political role since the great Soweto revolts in 1976 it is no surprise they are involved. Yet having promised to create 500,000 jobs in a recent state of the nation address, President Zuma retracted and stated that 'These are not the permanent jobs the economy should create but opportunities that should help our people survive in the short term'.
UNDERSTANDING ZUMAISM
It is important to understand the significance of the election of Jacob Zuma and the expectations he unleashed. Zuma unlike Mbeki is seen as a 'man of the people' and a friend of the workers who is willing to listen to the trade unions. Zuma and his supporters (including the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions (COSATU) and the SACP) long argued that he was victimised by Mbeki and his supporters.
In September 2008 then President Thabo Mbeki was 'recalled' (fired) by the ANC National Executive Committee, following a judge's ruling suggesting Mbeki - or some in the cabinet - might have interfered with the National Prosecuting Authority's decision to charge Jacob Zuma with corruption related to a giant arms deal.
This led to a split in the ANC and the formation of a new political party, the Congress of the People (COPE), by his supporters and led largely by black multi-millionaires. In January 2009, Zuma was set to be charged again with corruption, but a few months before the general election the charges were dropped, clearing the way for Zuma to become president of the country.
Some on the left argued that Mbeki was replaced as president due to the internal conflicts inside the ANC. But the conflicts inside the ANC reflect the anger and frustration with ANC neoliberal policies and Mbeki's fate was not sealed by internal party manoeuvres but by general strikes and protests in recent years that Zuma cleverly latched on to with help from the SACP and COSATU.
By seeming to victimise Zuma, Mbeki enhanced his popularity and created a new leader for millions of disaffected people. However Zuma is no radical. He was deputy president under Mbeki and never spoke out against Mbeki's pro-business policies and his outrageous stance on HIV-AIDS in which he denied there was a link.
Zuma is a pragmatist who has sought, so far successfully, to reassure the country's capitalists that he will not lurch to the left. Touted as a leftist by his supporters, he sounds more like a US Republican, said one newspaper columnist, as he calls for tougher action against crime and freer markets.
Prior to his election as president one of Zuma's closest advisers, former trade union leader Gwede Mantashe, met with investors in Cape Town and stressed the ways to accelerate South Africa's rate of investment, fight crime and provide a progressive social safety net. He said that under President Zuma's leadership 'this isn't about business versus the poor, it's about creating an environment for business while tending to the needs of the poor.'
At one point prior to his election Zuma talked of establishing a 'pact' between businesses, government and unions to address low wages, strikes and inflation. Yet this has already been shattered by the strikes and protests and instead of bringing social peace, the Financial Times has noted 'There is an ugly, unpredictable mood among South Africa's poor'.
THE ALLIANCE
It is very difficult to know what the political fallout of this latest wave of protests and strikes will be. There is always talk of the Alliance between the ANC, COSATU and the SACP breaking up, but many leading activists still feel that it is better to work on the inside of the Alliance and as President Zuma warned members in the run up to the acrimonious split in the ANC: 'I'll tell you one thing that we know from decades of experience. Anyone who has left the ANC, for whatever reason, has failed to shine.'
The Alliance is wracked with contradictions and tensions resulting from the confusion surrounding how to understand the ANC, with even the radical National Union of Metalworkers Union leadership saying that the protests are the result of polices led by 'neoliberal agents in government' - but it also accused some protestors of being 'opportunists and reactionary forces' who are manipulating the township protests.
What is clear is that the militant strikes and the township protests over the last few years have had the cumulative effect of blowing apart the neoliberal consensus in the Alliance. With the election of Jacob Zuma as president, many hoped that this would usher in a new period of social stability.
15 years of ANC rule have seen South Africa become the most unequal country in the world but also the protest capital of the world. In May 2008 government and police figures noted that between 1997 and 2008 there had been 8695 violent or unrestâ-'related crowd management incidents and 84, 487 peaceful demonstrations or peaceful crowd management incidents.
The difference this time is that whilst previous protests have focused on issues such as lack of water and housing, the recent protests have been more generalised and more violent. As protestor Mzonke Poni told reporters 'Whenever the ANC government fails to deliver, it comes up with excuses and blames it on individuals. It's true that its councillors lack commitment and skills, but it is the national leadership that is also to blame - and meanwhile people have to suffer. The only way the government notices us is when we express our anger and rage. Then they understand how we feel.'
This climate of rebellion creates immense opportunities and challenges for socialists to help organise the protests and help unite the struggles of the unemployed township poor and the working poor into a political alternative that can begin to challenge the dominance of the ANC.
Peter Dwyer is a research associate at the Centre for Sociological Research at the University of Johannesburg and tutor in Economics at Ruskin College. Adapted from Pambazuka news
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